The global autonomous vehicle market was valued at USD 54.23 billion in the year 2019 and is estimated to reach USD 75.59 billion by the year 2020.
It is expected to grow at the CAGR of 39.47% within the time horizon of 2020-2025 because of Increase road capacity and minimization of traffic congestion, Improved fuel economy & positive environmental outcomes, rising investment in digital infrastructure, elimination of accidents caused due to manual errors, and supportive regulatory framework
- Definition / Scope
- Market Overview
- Market Risks
- Top Market Opportunities
- Market Trends
- Industry Challenges
- Technology Trends
- Pricing Trends
- Regulatory Trends
- Market Size and Forecast
- Market Outlook
- Technology Roadmap
- Distribution Chain Analysis
- Competitive Factors
- Key Market Players
- Strategic Conclusion
- References
- Appendix
Definition / Scope
The autonomous vehicles are capable of navigating roadways and moving safely itself with little or no human input through the use of the sensors and software. It consists of advanced control systems including radar, lidar, sonar, GPS, odometry, and inertial measurement units.
These types of sensors assist to control, navigate, and operate the vehicle by sensing its environment. In general, the autonomous vehicles are based on the Bayesian Simultaneous localization and mapping algorithms that use the data obtained from the multiple sensors and fuse it to develop the current location estimates and map updates from the off-line map.
Based on the type of application, the global autonomous vehicle market consists of transportation and defense.
Based on the type of automation, the global autonomous vehicle market consists of the semi-autonomous and fully autonomous segment.
As the type of the sensor, its market consists of ultrasonic, image, radar, lidar, and other segments.
Market Overview
The total market size of the global autonomous vehicle market is valued at USD 54.23 billion in the year 2019 and is expected to reach USD 75.59 billion in the year 2020. Its market value is expected to grow at a CAGR of 39.47% within the forecasted time horizon of 2020-2025. Its market value is expected to reach USD 397.93 billion in the year 2025.
Globally, the autonomous vehicle is expected to reach almost 51.2 million units by the end of the year 2025, increased from 17.1 million units in the year 2019 in terms of the volume.
Based on geography, the North American region is leading the market with a market value of almost 39.08% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this region is valued at USD 21.19 billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of automation, the semi-autonomous segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 94.16% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 51.06 billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of application, the transportation segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 94.44% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 51.21 billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of sensor, the ultrasonic sensor segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 38.46% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 20.85 billion in the year 2019.
Increase road capacity and minimization of traffic congestion, Improved fuel economy & positive environmental outcomes, rising investment in digital infrastructure, elimination of accidents caused due to manual errors, and supportive regulatory framework are the driving factors responsible for the growth and development of the global autonomous market.
However, issues of slow internet speed and threats of hacking might restrain the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market. The key market players engaged in the global autonomous vehicle market are Audi AG, BMW AG, Baidu, Toyota, Tesla, Jaguar, Ford Motor Company, General /motors Company, and Google LLC.
Market Risks
- Issue of slow internet speed
Globally, the average broadband internet speed is about 11.03 megabits per second. In the case of the geographic distribution of internet speed, just 50 countries have the fastest internet speed worldwide. Here, almost 37 out of these 50 countries are located in Europe.
While almost 141 countries have Internet speed below the global broadband internet speed. This issue of internet speed will create difficulty for the communication of self-driving cars with each other about the driving conditions, traffic jams, and potential obstacles blocking the road.
It will create a risk for the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
Top Market Opportunities
- Increase road capacity and minimization of traffic congestion
According to the US Highway Capacity Manual, almost 2,200 passenger vehicles are driving per hour per lane in the United States. The use of autonomous vehicles will increase the roadway capacity and assists to minimize traffic congestion.
It has been estimated that the use of automated cars will increase the roadway capacity by almost 273% i.e. more than 8,200 cars per hour per lane. The use of the 100% connected vehicles with a vehicle-to-vehicle communication is estimated to further increase the capacity to almost 12,000 passenger vehicles per hour.
The increment in the road capacity will create a significant opportunity for the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicles market.
- Improved fuel economy and positive environmental outcomes
The autonomous vehicles can optimize the drive cycle of the vehicle by using accelerate and brake more efficiently. It helps to reduce the amount of wasted energy typically and assists to improve the fuel economy.
The improvement in the fuel economy will ultimately bring positive environmental outcomes as less amount of greenhouses from the automotive sector will be produced. For instance, the Smithsonian Institution has reduced almost 53% of the fuel consumption of the 1,500 vehicles through the use of the GPS tracking and wireless communication system.
A report of the Intelligent Transportation Society of America has stated that almost 2% to 4% of the oil consumption and related greenhouse gas emissions in the transportation system will be reduced due to the use of the intelligent transportation system over the next ten years.
The positive environmental outcomes expected to occur due to the use of the autonomous vehicle will drive the demand for these vehicles and directly create a significant opportunity for the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
- Rising investment in digital infrastructure
Globally, the investment of the governmental authorities, non-governmental organizations, and telecommunication companies in the digital infrastructure is in increasing trend.
The communication service providers have invested more than USD 300 billion in the digital infrastructure annually. Over the five years, the major automaker companies and specialist start-ups have also invested more than USD 50 billion for the development of autonomous vehicle technology.
The digital economy is growing at a rate of almost 10% annually. The rising investment in the digital infrastructure is creating a significant opportunity for the global autonomous vehicle market.
Market Trends
- Elimination of accidents caused due to manual errors
According to the World Health Organization, on average, almost 1.35 million of the road traffic deaths and about 20-50 million non-fatal road traffic crash injuries have occurred annually and road traffic injuries are the leading killer of the people of aged 5-29 years.
Here, more than fifty percent of the global road accidents fatalities have occurred among pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists. The major causes of road traffic accidents are distracted driving, drunk driving, speeding, reckless driving, etc. In this context, the use of autonomous vehicles will minimize traffic collisions, accidents caused by human errors.
It has been estimated that almost 25,000 lives of the people can be saved annually is 90% of the vehicles are autonomous in the context of the United States. The elimination of road traffic accidents through the use of autonomous vehicles can flourish the demand for autonomous vehicles, which will ultimately drive the growth and development of the global autonomous market.
- Supportive regulatory framework
Globally, most of the countries have developed governmental regulations for the development and testing of autonomous vehicles. In the context of the United States, the traffic sector is regulated by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which has allowed the testing self-driving car in several states of the United States (California, Florida, Washington DC, etc.).
The European Union, the Netherlands Organization for applied scientific research has developed the implementation plan of multi-brand truck platooning on European roads, which will enable a single truck to create a connected convoy with other trucks and promote the use of the autonomous vehicles.
Along with this, the UK Department of Transport has developed the Center for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and is committed to getting the autonomous vehicles by the year 2021.
In December 2019, the Baidu has secured almost 40 licenses for the companies to test driverless cars. This type of supportive government regulations is driving the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
- Burgeoning threat from hackers
In the autonomous vehicles, there is a risk of hacking due to the sharing of information through the vehicle to vehicle and vehicle to infrastructure protocols. The location of the vehicle can be shared with other individuals through user interference and might create the risk of the privacy of the passengers in self-driving vehicles.
Research conducted at Georgia Tech and Multiscale Systems Inc. to assess the risk of the hacked internet-connected vehicles in New York has found that almost 10-20% of the vehicles were hacked at rush hour. The increasing extent of the security threats, privacy-related issues, and hackers will restrain the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
Industry Challenges
- Difficulty in the programming of other road users behavior
Although the autonomous vehicles are capable of sensing the environment and operate in accordance to it, they are facing the difficulties to access the behaviors of other road users such as bicyclists, pedestrians, animals, etc.
To deal with it, one of the market players Drive.ai has tested the solution to display the LED signs outside the vehicles with announcing status such as don’t cross, waiting for you to cross.
It is quite challenging for the market players to develop advanced programming of the driving algorithms to observe, detect the behavior and intention of the other road users and act according to it.
Technology Trends
Advancement in science and technology is creating a significant opportunity for the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market. Some of the key technological changes in the global autonomous market:
- LiDAR systems: It is based on 3-D scanning technology, which is used to measure the distances by the use of the laser light and sensors. Here, the laser light illuminates the target, and reflection of light is measured with the sensor.
- RADAR systems: This detection technology uses the radio waves to measure the range, angle, and the velocity of the objects. It consists of transmitter domain, transmitting antenna, receiving antenna, receiver, and processor to produce and transmit the radio waves.
- GPS: It is the satellite-based navigation system that transmits 2 low-power radio signals. The autonomous vehicles use real-time geographical data from the GPS satellites to measure the longitude, and latitude of the location and assist to navigate the vehicles.
- Ultrasonic sensors: It is the electronic device that assists to measure the distance of the target through the assessment of the time between the emission and reception.
- Computer vision technology: This technology is used to identify, classify, and detect the obstacles and avoid collisions and accidents in autonomous vehicles.
Pricing Trends
The price of the products of this market depends upon the type of technology, level of automation, type of sensors, type of vehicle, brand name, and application.
For instance, the price of the Volvo XC60 autonomous car is about USD 40,795 per unit while the price of the Tesla Model 3 autonomous driving is about USD 35,000 per unit.
The price of the BMW 5 series is about USD 62,800 per unit. The average price of autonomous vehicles is almost USD 50,000 per unit. The price of the autonomous vehicle is expected to decrease and reach USD 5000 by the year 2030.
Regulatory Trends
Some of the regulations directly and indirectly related to the global autonomous vehicle market are discussed as follows:
Self-driving Car Road Testing Regulations: It was developed by the Ministry of Industry and Information technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, and the Ministry of Transport and was issued by Beijing in 2018. According to it, the self-driving function of the test vehicles must be tested and verified by the third-party testing institutes.
The Automated and Electric Vehicles Act: The government of the UK in 2018 developed it. According to it, the insurance is mandatory for all vehicles, and the owner of the autonomous vehicles will only be liable if the vehicle is not insured.
Vienna Convention on Road Traffic: This convention was signed by more than 70 countries worldwide to govern the traffic laws. According to it, the driver is always fully responsible for the behavior of a vehicle in traffic.
Market Size and Forecast
The total market size of the global autonomous vehicles market is valued at USD 54.23 billion in the year 2019 and is expected to reach USD 75.59 billion in the year 2020. Its market value is expected to grow at a CAGR of 39.4% within the forecasted time horizon of 2020-2025. Its market value is expected to reach USD 397.93 billion in the year 2025.
Globally, the autonomous vehicle is expected to reach almost 51.2 million units by the end of the year 2025, increased from 17.1 million units in the year 2019 in terms of the volume.
Based on the geography
- The North America region is leading the market with a market value of almost 39.08% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this region is valued at USD 21.19 billion in the year 2019.
- The European region accounts for a market share of almost 15% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 8.13 billion in the year 2019.
- The APAC region accounts for a market share of almost 35.92% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 19.47 billion in the year 2019.
- ROW stands for the rest of the world, which consists of South America, the Middle East, and the African region. This segment accounts for a market share of almost 10% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 5.42 billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of automation
- The semi-autonomous segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 94.16% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 51.06 billion in the year 2019.
- The fully-autonomous segment accounts for a market share of almost 5.83% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of application
- The transportation segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 94.44% of the global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 51.21 billion in the year 2019.
- The defense segment accounts for a market share of almost 5.55% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 3.01 billion in the year 2019.
Based on the type of sensor
- The ultrasonic sensor segment is leading the market with a market share of almost 38.46% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 20.85 billion in the year 2019.
- The image sensor segment accounts for a market share of almost 30.76% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 16.68 billion in the year 2019.
- The radar sensor segment accounts for a market share of almost 13.07% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 7.09 billion in the year 2019.
- The Lidar sensor accounts for a market share of almost 7.69% of the total global autonomous vehicle market. The market size of this segment is valued at USD 4.17 billion in the year 2019.
Market Outlook
The global autonomous vehicle market is expected to grow at the CAGR of 39.47% within the forecasted period of 2020-2025 because of increasing road capacity and minimization of traffic congestion, improved fuel economy & positive environmental outcomes, rising investment in digital infrastructure, elimination of accidents caused due to manual errors, and supportive regulatory framework.
Its market size will reach USD 397.93 billion by the end of the year 2025.
Technology Roadmap
The adoption of innovative advanced technological changes is driving the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
For instance, major technological changes such as radar, lidar, GPS, computer vision, and multiple sensors are enhancing the efficiency and safety of autonomous vehicles.
Distribution Chain Analysis
The key stakeholders involved in the operation of the global autonomous vehicle market are technology providers, vehicle component manufacturers, software developers, distributors, retail sales, and end-users.
The technological company develops the appropriate technology for the autonomous vehicles and software companies provide the software component for the vehicle manufacturing company.
Technology Roadmap
The adoption of innovative advanced technological changes is driving the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
For instance, major technological changes such as radar, lidar, GPS, computer vision, and multiple sensors are enhancing the efficiency and safety of autonomous vehicles.
Distribution Chain Analysis
The key stakeholders involved in the operation of the global autonomous vehicle market are technology providers, vehicle component manufacturers, software developers, distributors, retail sales, and end-users.
The technological company develops the appropriate technology for the autonomous vehicles and software companies provide the software component for the vehicle manufacturing company.
Competitive Factors
The key market players engaged in this global autonomous vehicle market are focused on the collaborations and development of innovative solutions. For instance, the Daimler partnered with Robert Bosch GmbH and Nvidia Corporation for the development of autonomous cars.
BMW AG has signed a memorandum of understanding with Fiat Chrysler automobile for the development of the autonomous vehicle driving platform.
General Motors and Cruise has joined forces with Honda for the deployment of the technology for autonomous vehicles.
Key Market Players
Short profile of the key market players engaged in the global autonomous vehicle market are discussed as follows:
Google LLC: It is the US-based multinational technology company engaged in the provision of internet-related services and products. It is specialized in online advertising technologies, search engines, cloud computing, software, and hardware development.
Audi AG: It is the German automotive company engaged in the design, manufacture, marketing, and distribution of luxury vehicles. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 68.67 billion.
BMW AG: It is the multinational company with its headquarter in Munich, Germany, and founded in 1916. It is specialized in the manufacture of luxury vehicles, motorcycles, and aircraft engines. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 120.78 billion in the year 2019.
Baidu: It is China-based one of the largest multinational companies engaged in the provision of internet-related services & products, artificial intelligence. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 14.62 billion.
Toyota: It is the Japan-based multinational manufacturer specialized in the manufacture of hybrid electric vehicles, automobiles, luxury vehicles, commercial vehicles, and engines. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 275.4 billion in the year 2019.
Tesla: It is the US-based company engaged in the sector of electric vehicle manufacture, battery energy storage, alternative energy, and manufacture of solar panel and solar roof tile. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 24.57 billion in the year 2019.
Ford Motor Company: It is the US-based multinational company engaged in the manufacture of automobiles, commercial vehicles, luxury vehicles, automotive parts, pickup trucks, etc. The revenue of this company is valued at USD 155.9 billion in 2019.
Strategic Conclusion
The global autonomous vehicles market is growing at the rate of 39.47% because of increasing road capacity and minimization of traffic congestion, improved fuel economy & positive environmental outcomes, rising investment in digital infrastructure, elimination of accidents caused due to manual errors, and supportive regulatory framework.
However, issues of slow internet speed and threats of hacking might restrain the growth and development of the global autonomous vehicle market.
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Appendix
- LiDAR= Light Detection and Ranging
- GPS= Global Positioning System
- USD= United States Dollar
- CAGR= Compound Annual Growth Rate
